Modeling the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and biodiversity in the Masuria region in 2050

In October 2025, we completed our work on modeling the impact of climate change on agriculture and biodiversity in the Masuria region until 2050. We analyzed five key products: barley, red clover, corn, sunflower, and milk, to see how they might respond to a warmer and less seasonal climate under current farming practices.

The modeling results show that by 2050, most crops will be relatively resilient to climate change. Barley remains stable, corn may gain slightly, and red clover will significantly improve its yield and water use efficiency. Sunflower will be more sensitive during the flowering phase, while milk production shows a slight decline under unchanged grazing rules.

Climate change in Masuria will mainly affect plant growth rates and water demand, rather than the amount of energy reaching the crops. This means that proper management and minor adjustments on farms can effectively mitigate risks and harness the potential of plants in new conditions.